The next big technology battle is looming, and it’s going to be Google
vs. Microsoft, writes columnist Rob Enderle. Google is gearing up with
its Android smartphone platform and its Chrome browser to take on the
big kid from Redmond. It’s even using some of Microsoft’s own tricks
against it.
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Last week was so ugly the economic conditions had me up on that has
Steve Jobs selling HP computers. Increasingly lots of us are viewing
these ads and other short videos on our phones, and that isn’t all we
are doing. E-mail, light document creation, and even a lot of gaming
have moved over to cell phones.
This change is likely to shift the hierarchy as well, and both Google
and are shooting for the top spot, but only Google is currently
positioned properly to take it and, unlike IBM, Microsoft is planning
to put up a huge fight.
Let’s talk about the competition for the next platform, why Microsoft
is at risk, and why Google is blending Chrome and Android in a
Microsoft-like strategy to take out Microsoft.
We’ll end with our product of the week, a product I wish I’d thought
of that can make sure all those pictures on your PC aren’t going to go
away if you lose a hard drive or catch a nasty PC virus.
The growth numbers that ABI research is predicting seem very
aggressive until you realize that the total market for phones is
estimated to be around 3.3 billion. These phones increasingly are
becoming more capable and data services more affordable. Additionally,
with the fact that the phone market — in terms of volume — is so
much larger than the PC market ever has been and that smartphones roll
against this 3.3 billion opportunity, there is a chance that the ABI
report I mentioned — which seems aggressive — is actually more
conservative than reality will be.
This is because the market growth models most of us are using are
based on product growth into a market that isn’t primed for the
emerging platform, and this one clearly is.
Now, what is keeping this market from going vertical this year isn’t
so much the technology, though that does play a role (it remains too
complicated for many). It is the cost of the data services, which,
while they have been dropping, remain above what most are willing to
spend right now. If we add in the current economic conditions, this
move to more expensive products is being significantly hampered by
conditions other than technical. The economy will improve, however,
and with the introduction of , the cost to connect to a wide area data
service should drop to affordable levels by the end of the decade.
By the way, we have two concepts running at each other: The
smartphone, led by the G1, Blackberry and iPhone on one side, and the
netbook running at it from the other. Smartphones are drifting larger
and netbooks smaller, and we may be waiting for the ideal middle
ground. Until we get there, check out the coolest netbook from custom
shop Smooth Creations, called the Now that’s something I’d carry.
Google’s intent isn’t to go after Apple; the two companies don’t view
each other as competitors. However, Google is attacking Microsoft on
this smartphone wave, and when you have two companies with the
resources these guys have going after each other, there is a good
chance there will be collateral damage. Apple, and RIM (among others)
could be hit rather hard as Microsoft and Google really start to
engage in 2009 and 2010.
While Apple has traditionally out-marketed everyone else in the
segment, it will have difficultly funding the kind of US$300 million
campaign that Microsoft is currently running. Google, on the other
hand, appears perfectly willing to match Microsoft dollar for dollar
and toss in its considerable advertising placement technology on top
of that significant spend. To counter Google, Microsoft is building up
its own ad engine and no one else — including Apple — has the mix of
advertising dollars and resources that these two companies are
bringing to the table.
Now, I’m not suggesting that Apple or the iPhone will go away —
Porsche did just fine while GM, Ford and Toyota battled it out for the
lead in the car market. However, Porsche remained a niche and only
recently to take a shot at becoming a major market leader (if you are
into cars, this is a battle to watch).
If, and “if” is a big word, Apple wants to have a shot at dominating
this new market as it currently does the music market (which may be
displaced by these new phones), it will need to gain substantial
additional capability, either through mergers or through partnerships,
and neither is a traditional Apple path.
This, to me, means that either Google or Microsoft (of all the current
players) — because they have the greatest resources and because they
both have shown they can scale to the kind of numbers we are talking
about here — will emerge as the new or reborn king of the hill.
To win, Microsoft has to address the user experience problem it has
with Windows Mobile and had with Plays for Sure. With that last, it
doomed Zune and destroyed its own ability to out-scale Apple and
assured that it would always be a smaller player in the MP3 space.
That same path would have an even more dramatic limiting result here.
But Microsoft still has to assure an iPhone-like user experience, and
it has been unwilling to step up and do what it takes to achieve that
on any platform it sells through partners — but that may be changing.
Google has a different problem. It is not a platform company, and this
move to making platforms will distract Google significantly from its
core search and advertising business. Google may end up losing far
more revenue than it gains long-term, and that could keep it from
funding this effort, which and includes the Chrome browser, to
displace Microsoft. Google’s path appears deceptively easier, but
having studied companies ranging from Chrysler to National Harvester
that made similar decisions, I would say it may also be the most
risky. When you aren’t yet expert at something, it always looks
deceptively easy, and Google is not yet expert at driving platforms.
It is too early to call a winner. That winner will likely be the firm
that does the best job of getting out of its own way.
Every once in a while, I run into a product that gives me a “damn, I
wish I’d thought of that” moment. We all have lots of pictures on our
PCs we’ve downloaded off our camera. Very few of us do regular
backups, and I’m willing to bet even fewer know for sure that a
restore will actually work. Doing DVD backup of pictures makes a lot
of sense because you still can likely put all of them on one DVD and
just toss the thing into some safe spot, but we can’t be bothered to
go through and find the darned pictures, then copy them onto a DVD.
is a package of DVDs that has the application that finds and saves the
pictures on it. You just load the DVD, go grab some lunch, then come
back and all your pictures are now on that DVD, which you can now put
in a safe place. Do this once a month or so, and you’ll probably never
lose another picture. And even if you lose one DVD, there is a good
chance you won’t lose all of them.
Memories are important, and pictures can’t be replaced. It’s cheap,
too, at $15 for 5 — that’s $3 a disk. Because this is simple (and
cheap), because it protects some of our most valuable memories, and
because I wish I’d thought of it, Verbatim’s PhotoSaveDVD is my
product of the week.
Rob Enderle is a TechNewsWorld columnist and the principal analyst for
the , a consultancy that focuses on personal technology products and
trends.
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